Flower

Illustration by Hilary Fung

2 Degrees Will Change The World

More Floods, More Drought Inevitable. How Bad Do We Want It To Get?

By Alissa Scheller

MONDAY, NOV. 30, 2015, 8:30 AM EDT

World leaders are meeting in Paris this month in what amounts to a last-ditch effort to avert the worst ravages of climate change. Climatologists now say that the best case scenario — assuming immediate and dramatic emissions curbs — is that planetary surface temperatures will increase by at least 2 degrees Celsius in the coming decades.

This may sound like a small uptick, but the implications are profound. Rising temperatures will destroy plant and animal habitats, and reduce yields of important food crops. More people will be exposed to the ravages of flooding and drought.

But if the nations involved in the Paris talks stay on their current emissions track and don’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures could go up by almost 6 degrees Celsius this century, according to the Committee on Climate Change, an independent body that advises the U.K. government on climate issues.

The consequences of a heating globe are already being felt in Alaska, which is warming twice as fast as the rest of the U.S. Rising temperatures have thawed frozen soil in some areas, leaving coastlines vulnerable to storms and tidal activity. Shishmaref, a remote village that sits on an island 30 miles outside the Arctic circle, is losing as many as 9 feet of land a year — chunks of coastline that simply break into the sea.

Plant And Animal Habitats Face Dire Threat From Warming Climate

Each year, more species are losing their habitats to climate change. An increase of 4 degrees Celsius in average planetary temperatures could result in severe habitat loss for almost two-thirds of plant species and one-third of mammal species.

+2 degrees +4 degrees

Climateconference productivity losses

Loss of crop yields

60%

40%

20%

0%

MAIZE

SPRING WHEAT

Climateconference percent species

Species losing at least half their habitat

60%

40%

20%

0%

PLANTS

MAMMALS

Source: Committee on Climate Change
Crop estimates assume that crop varieties and planting times are adjusted to optimize yeild. Plant and animal estimates assume that species disperse to new areas at historically observed rates. Charts show median estimates.

More People Threatened By A Warming Planet

Even if nations meeting in Paris curtail carbon emissions, a growing number of communities will be exposed to threats caused by climate change. Vulnerable populations that live near water or in arid places will face massive disruptions to their way of life: Flooding and severe drought are on course to become much more common.

+2 degrees +4 degrees

Climateconference coastalfloods

COASTAL FLOODS

An estimated 2 million to 13 million

people each year will be

exposed to flooding

Roughly equal to the

population of...

New Orleans and

southern Louisiana

...Louisiana, Mississippi

and Alabama

Climateconference riverfloods

RIVER FLOODS

About 130 million to 250 million

people each year will be

exposed to flooding

...the entire South and

part of the Northeast

...the entire East and

Midwest of the U.S.

Climateconference waterstress

WATER STRESS

An estimated 1.5 billion

to 2 billion people each year will live

in areas without enough usable water

...almost five times

the U.S.

...six times the U.S.

Source: Committee on Climate Change, Census Bureau (population estimates). Charts show median estimates.
1. Coastal flood estimates assume that flood protections evolve with population and wealth.
2. River flood estimates assume that protections do not evolve.

The World’s Biggest Emitters

Human activity since industrialization has led to a huge increase in the production of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that contributes to rising global temperatures. Scientists warn that if carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current rates, Earth’s temperatures could increase dramatically in future decades, leading to catastrophic and irreversible climate change.

The 10 largest emitters produced about 26.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide in 2013. (A gigaton is 1 billion tons, or roughly the equivalent of the annual emissions from every passenger car in the U.S. each year.) They are highlighted in red.

Climateconference world map Climateconference world map mid Climateconference world map mobile

European

Union

3.48

Russia

1.81

Canada

0.50

South Korea

0.61

Iran

0.61

5 GtCO2/yr

United States

5.23

China

9.97

2.5

Japan

1.24

1

0.25

Saudi Arabia

0.51

India

2.40

Largest producers per person

In tons of CO2 per person

Qatar is the

largest per capita

producer of CO2

Qatar

Trinidad and Tobago

Kuwait

Brunei

Aruba

40.28

36.47

29.86

25.24

22.53

5 GtCO2/yr

2.5

1

0.25

European Union

3.48

Russia

1.81

Canada

0.50

South Korea

0.61

Iran

0.61

United States

5.23

China

9.97

Japan

1.24

Saudi Arabia

0.51

India

2.40

Russia

1.81

European Union

3.48

China

9.97

United States

5.23

India

2.40

Source: Boden, TA, G Marland, and RJ Andres. 2013. Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., USA doi:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2013, via Global Carbon Atlas

Countries Producing Most Of The World’s Carbon Promise Big Cuts

Countries responsible for two-thirds of global emissions have made commitments to curb their greenhouse gas production. That group includes some of the biggest emitters like China, India and the U.S.

China, the world’s biggest carbon producer, has promised that its carbon emissions will peak by 2030.

Projected emissions by 2019, in gigatons of carbon dioxide

Climateconference china

12

10

12.7

China: 12.7

8

6

4

2

0

1960

2020

China’s Target

China will aim to reach maximum carbon emissions by 2030. After that, it will lower its carbon dioxide emissions by 60 to 65 percent relative to 2005 levels.

Climateconference us

12

10

8

6

4

5.2

U.S.: 5.2

2

0

1960

2020

United States’ Target

By 2025, the U.S. aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28 percent relative to 2005 levels.

Climateconference eu

12

10

8

6

4

3.3

E.U.: 3.3

2

0

1960

2020

European Union’s Target

By 2030, the EU aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40 percent relative to 1990 levels.

Climateconference india

12

10

8

6

3.4

India: 3.4

4

2

0

1960

2020

India’s Target

By 2030, India aims to reduce the ratio of emissions to its GDP by 33 to 35 percent relative to 2005 levels.

Source: CDIAC/GCP/Friedlingstein et al 2014, via Global Carbon Project

Fossil Fuels Triggering Rapidly Rising Temperatures

Limiting global temperature increases requires reducing carbon emissions. Global fossil fuel and cement consumption are leading drivers of emissions -- combined, they've risen about 60 percent since 1990. The Global Carbon Project calculates that emissions from these sources will continue to rise.

The green, orange and yellow lines indicate how surface temperatures will likely respond if leading carbon emitters begin to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Without immediate curbs, temperatures are set to follow the red track, and increase between 3.2 and 5.4 degrees Celsius by 2100. The green line shows how we can minimize warming if emissions immediately drop -- a highly unlikely scenario.

Global fossil fuel and cement emissions, in gigatons of carbon dioxide

Climateconference emissions scenarios Climateconference emissions scenarios mobile

3.2−5.4°C

3.2−5.4°C

100

100

100

warming

relative to

1850–1900

warming relative to 1850–1900

80

80

80

60

60

60

2.0−3.7°C

2.0−3.7°C

2014 estimate

2014 estimate

40

40

40

20

20

20

Historical emissions

Historical emissions

1.7−3.2°C

1.7−3.2°C

0

0

0

0.9−2.3°C

0.9−2.3°C

Net-negative global emissions

-20

-20

-20

1860

1860

1860

1880

1900

1920

1920

1940

1960

1980

1980

1980

2000

2020

2040

2040

2060

2080

2100

2100

2100

Source: CDIAC/GCP/Friedlingstein et al 2014, via Global Carbon Project