How Democrats Are Faring In First Tests Of The Trump Backlash
An analysis of the special elections held since November offers some clues about the party's changing fortunes.
By Alissa Scheller and Daniel Marans
PUBLISHED: Monday, April 10, 2017 9:30 AM EST
UPDATED: Wednesday, May 31, 2017 6:00 PM EST
President Donald Trump’s election has sparked an enormous groundswell of activism from rank-and-file voters angry about his policies.
Political analysts have wondered whether Democrats can turn this wave of progressive enthusiasm into concrete electoral gains in the 2018 midterms. One way to test that: special elections to fill empty state legislature and congressional seats.
Special elections, which typically motivate much lower turnout than ordinary races, are an important indicator of partisan enthusiasm. That’s why a Delaware state senate race in late February got so much national attention.
As of May 31, there have been 31 special elections (including primaries that will go to runoffs later this year) for state house and senate or congressional seats since Nov. 9, 2016. Between now and November 2017, there will be special elections for 19 more state legislature seats, four U.S. House seats and one U.S. Senate seat. Some Democratic candidates in U.S. House races are generating excitement, including the Bernie Sanders-backing banjo player Rob Quist in Montana and 30-year-old documentary filmmaker Jon Ossoff in Georgia.
The Huffington Post has created a visualization comparing Democrats’ margins in each special election held so far this year to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s margin against Trump in the same district last fall. We’ll be updating this resource as more races take place.
Notes: Some Virginia voting districts are split, meaning that some precincts fall in two districts. The full precinct is counted here in the general election results when part of the precinct falls within the district because they are not further broken down. Virginia Districts 9 and 71 had no Republican candidate run in special elections, only a Democrat and Libertarian. Democratic candidates are compared to Libertarians here. Virginia general margins do not include absentee or provisional votes, as these are not available broken down by precinct. Louisiana Districts 8 and 42 had only Republican candidates run in the special elections. Louisiana general margins do not include early or provisional votes, because those are not broken down by precinct, only Parish. Lousiana District 92 had a Democratic candidate, but he dropped out of the race, though his name was still on the ballot.
The implications of special elections for national politics vary greatly. There’s a reason why White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon is keeping a close eye on the battle for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, a heavily Republican area where Democrats are putting up a major fight, rather than on other down-ballot races.
It's not all good news for Democrats, however. In Connecticut’s 2nd Senate District, for example, Republicans decreased their loss margin by some 20 percentage points.
But Democrats see promising signs in other areas. In Iowa’s 45th Senate District, where Clinton defeated Trump by about 16 percentage points, Democrat Jim Lykam defeated Mike Gonzales, the GOP candidate, by an almost 50 percentage-point margin in a December special election. And in Minnesota’s House of Representatives District 32B, where Clinton lost to Trump by 29 percentage points, Democrat Laurie Warner lost to Republican Anne Neu by just 6 percentage points.
Check out each of the special election results in greater detail below.
Virginia State Senate District 9
Election Date: January 10, 2017
Virginia State Senate District 22
Election Date: January 10, 2017
Virginia House of Delegates District 85
Election Date: January 10, 2017
Virginia House of Delegates District 71
Election Date: February 7, 2017
Iowa Senate District 45
Election Date: December 27, 2016
Iowa House of Representatives District 89
Election Date: January 31, 2017
Minnesota House of Representatives District 32B
Election Date: February 14, 2017
Delaware State Senate District 10
Election Date: February 25, 2017
Connecticut State Senate District 2
Election Date: February 28, 2017
Connecticut State Senate District 32
Election Date: February 28, 2017
Connecticut House of Representatives District 115
Election Date: February 28, 2017
Connecticut House of Representatives District 68
Election Date: April 25, 2017
Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 197
Election Date: March 21, 2017
Louisiana House of Representatives District 8
Election Date: March 25, 2017
Louisiana House of Representatives District 42
Election Date: March 25, 2017
Louisiana House of Representatives District 92
Election Date: March 25, 2017
Kansas Congressional District 4
Election Date: April 11, 2017
Alabama House of Representatives District 67
Election Date: April 18, 2017
Oklahoma House of Representatives District 28
Election Date: May 9, 2017
Notes: Precinct data not yet available for Connecticut districts. Some Virginia voting districts are split, meaning that some precincts fall in two districts. The full precinct is counted here in the general election results when part of the precinct falls within the district because they are not further broken down. Virginia Districts 9 and 71 had no Republican candidate run in special elections, only a Democrat and Libertarian. Democratic candidates are compared to Libertarians here. Virginia general margins do not include absentee or provisional votes, as these are not available broken down by precinct. Louisiana Districts 8 and 42 had only Republican candidates run in the special elections. Louisiana general margins do not include early or provisional votes, because those are not broken down by precinct, only Parish. Lousiana District 92 had a Democratic candidate, but he dropped out of the race, though his name was still on the ballot.
Upcoming Races
Special Election | Election Date |
California Congressional District 34 (Runoff) | June 6, 2017 |
Tennessee House of Representatives District 95 | June 15, 2017 |
South Carolina Congressional District 5 (Runoff) | June 20, 2017 |
Georgia Congressional District 6 (Runoff) | June 20, 2017 |
South Carolina House of Representatives District 48 | June 20, 2017 |
South Carolina House of Representatives District 70 | June 20, 2017 |
Oklahoma House of Representatives District 75 | July 11, 2017 |
New Hampshire House of Representatives District Merrimack 18 | July 18, 2017 |
New Hampshire State Senate District 16 | July 25, 2017 |
Missouri State Senate District 28 | August 8, 2017 |
Missouri House of Representatives District 50 | August 8, 2017 |
U.S. Senator from Alabama (Primary) | August 15, 2017 |
Oklahoma State Senate District 44 | September 12, 2017 |
Oklahoma House of Representatives District 46 | September 12, 2017 |
U.S. Senator from Alabama (Runoff) | September 26, 2017 |
Michigan House of Representatives District 1 | November 7, 2017 |
Washington State Senate District 7 | November 7, 2017 |
Washington House of Representatives District 7 | November 7, 2017 |
Washington State Senate District 31 | November 7, 2017 |
Washington House of Representatives District 31 | November 7, 2017 |
Washington State Senate District 37 | November 7, 2017 |
Washington State Senate District 45 | November 7, 2017 |
Washington State Senate District 48 | November 7, 2017 |
Washington House of Representatives District 48 | November 7, 2017 |
U.S. Senator from Alabama (General) | December 12, 2017 |
Sources: Ballotopedia, Secretary of State and Registrar of Voters offices