Don't rely on bloviating pundits to tell you who'll prevail on Hollywood's big night. The Huffington Post crunched the stats on every Oscar nominee of the past 30 years to produce a scientific metric for predicting the winners at the 2013 Academy Awards.

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Key Dates
Thursday, Jan. 10 Nominees announced
Sunday, Jan. 13 Golden Globes
Friday, Feb. 8 Final voting begins
Sunday, Feb. 24 Oscar night

Best Picture Facebook Twitter

Box Office
Audience Rating Critical
Chance of
Argo Argo $128 M 86 ●●●● ●●●●●
Lincoln Lincoln $177 M 86 ●●●●●
Silver linings playbook Silver Linings Playbook $103 M 81 ●●●●●
Life of pi Life Of Pi $112 M 79 ●●●●●
Les miserables Les Miserables $146 M 63 ●●●●●
Zero dark thirty Zero Dark Thirty $90 M 95 ●● ●●●●●
Amour Amour $4 M 94 ●● ●●●●●
Beasts of the southern wild Beasts Of The Southern Wild $12 M 86 ●●●● 0.0%
Django unchained Django Unchained $158 M 81 ●●●●●

What the Numbers Mean

Box Office Gross shows how much a movie earned in theaters in the U.S., day-by-day, since it opened. Nominees that make more money at the box office are more likely to win Best Picture.
Audience Rating measures Rotten Tomatoes user reviews. Critical Rating is a weighted average of critic reviews compiled by Metacritic. Popular opinion is better than critical assessment at predicting success.
Other Awards counts wins at the Golden Globes and beyond. Oscar Nominations shows how well a film did in other categories. Movies with more nominations are more likely to win Best Picture.
Chance of Winning is HuffPost's synthesis of all this data along with the latest prices from the Intrade, Betfair and Hollywood Stock Exchange prediction markets.

Best Actor Facebook Twitter

Hugh Jackman may have picked the wrong year to give the performance of his career. If Daniel Day-Lewis wins, as every sentient being expects he will, he will be the proud owner of three Academy Award statuettes for Best Actor.

Best Actress Facebook Twitter

"Silver Linings Playbook" wasn't even Jennifer Lawrence's most popular movie this year — that would be "The Hunger Games" — but her endearing performance as an eccentric young widow has her team expecting gold.

Best Supporting Actor Facebook Twitter

Will the "Lincoln" juggernaut lift Tommy Lee Jones to victory, or will Philip Seymour Hoffman see to it that fallen favorite "The Master" doesn't go home empty handed?

Best Supporting Actress Facebook Twitter

Anne Hathaway dreamed a dream that she'd win an Oscar for her performance as Fantine in "Les Misérables," and chances are very good indeed that it will come true. Don't worry, Sally Field, we still like you.

Best Director Facebook Twitter

Steven Spielberg, a seven-time nominee and two-time winner in this category, will be tough to beat, but Ang Lee and David O. Russell will certainly try, with help from the publicity machines at Fox and The Weinstein Company, respectively.

Best Animated Feature FilmFacebook Twitter

Wreck-It Ralph 56.9%
Brave 39.4%
Frankenweenie 3.5%
Paranorman 0.1%
The Pirates! Band Of Misfits 0.1%

Best Production DesignFacebook Twitter

Les Miserables 53.5%
Anna Karenina 33.8%
Life Of Pi 6.4%
Lincoln 6.2%
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 0.1%

Best CinematographyFacebook Twitter

Life Of Pi 96.7%
Skyfall 3.2%
Lincoln 0.1%
Anna Karenina 0.0%
Django Unchained 0.0%

Best Costume DesignFacebook Twitter

Anna Karenina 82.9%
Les Miserables 16.9%
Mirror Mirror 0.2%
Lincoln 0.0%
Snow White And The Huntsman 0.0%

Best DocumentaryFacebook Twitter

Searching For Sugar Man 98.7%
How to Survive a Plague 0.7%
The Gatekeepers 0.5%
5 Broken Cameras 0.1%
The Invisible War 0.0%

Best Documentary (Short)Facebook Twitter

Open Heart 76.8%
Inocente 18.7%
Mondays at Racine 4.3%
Kings Point 0.2%
Redemption 0.0%

Best Film EditingFacebook Twitter

Argo 81.5%
Zero Dark Thirty 17.9%
Silver Linings Playbook 0.4%
Life Of Pi 0.1%
Lincoln 0.1%

Best Foreign FilmFacebook Twitter

Amour 99.7%
A Royal Affair 0.2%
Kon-Tiki 0.1%
No 0.0%
War Witch 0.0%

Best MakeupFacebook Twitter

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 64.0%
Les Miserables 35.8%
Hitchcock 0.2%

Best Original ScoreFacebook Twitter

Life Of Pi 82.3%
Lincoln 14.1%
Skyfall 2.9%
Argo 0.4%
Anna Karenina 0.2%

Best Original SongFacebook Twitter

Skyfall 99.4%
Ted 0.5%
Les Miserables 0.1%
Chasing Ice 0.0%
Life Of Pi 0.0%

Best Short Film (Animated)Facebook Twitter

Paperman 70.4%
Adam and Dog 7.4%
Fresh Guacamole 7.4%
Head over Heels 7.4%
The Longest Daycare 7.4%

Best Short Film (Live Action)Facebook Twitter

Curfew 33.3%
Asad 16.7%
Buzkashi Boys 16.7%
Death of a Shadow 16.7%
Henry 16.7%

Best Sound EditingFacebook Twitter

Zero Dark Thirty 50.9%
Life Of Pi 25.3%
Skyfall 13.8%
Argo 9.9%
Django Unchained 0.1%

Best Sound MixingFacebook Twitter

Les Miserables 97.9%
Skyfall 1.3%
Life Of Pi 0.4%
Argo 0.3%
Lincoln 0.1%

Best Visual EffectsFacebook Twitter

Life Of Pi 99.7%
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 0.3%
Marvel's The Avengers 0.0%
Prometheus 0.0%
Snow White And The Huntsman 0.0%

Best Adapted ScreenplayFacebook Twitter

Argo 70.5%
Lincoln 25.0%
Silver Linings Playbook 4.3%
Life Of Pi 0.2%
Beasts Of The Southern Wild 0.0%

Best Original ScreenplayFacebook Twitter

Django Unchained 58.5%
Amour 23.9%
Zero Dark Thirty 17.4%
Moonrise Kingdom 0.1%
Flight 0.0%

By Aaron Bycoffe, Andrei Scheinkman and Michael Hogan. Statistical analysis by David Rothschild. Last updated Sunday, Feb. 24, 2013, 8:24 pm EST. Arrows indicate change over the past week.

Sources: Box Office Mojo, Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic, Intrade, Betfair, Hollywood Stock Exchange. Image credits: AP, Getty Images.